Solar Power Trends: German and U.S. Perspectives

“The price for solar will probably be cut in half over the next 3 to 5 years. At that point, there will be no stopping solar power”, said Volker Quaschning, one of the speakers on March 12th when the Heinrich Böll Foundation in association with the Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI) held a briefing looking at the energy transition occurring in Germany and how that compares, particularly with regard to the solar sector, with the United States. At the latest five years from now “people will only need half the retail rate to pay for their solar array, meaning that millions of homeowners will immediately want to start generating a large part of their power themselves.”

Due to such forecasts and in light of the international race to a low-carbon economy, Germany has generated particular interest with its quick transition from coal and nuclear energy to a renewable energy based economy. Over the last ten years, Germany has increased the share of electricity from renewable sources from 5 percent to over 20 percent, while creating more than 380,000 new jobs in this sector. Together with Italy, not-so-sunny Germany is known as a world leader in deploying solar power. In 2011 alone, more than 7,000 MW of photovoltaics were installed in Germany, more than double the number of U.S. installations in the same time period. Investments in Germany as well as the United States have spurred manufacturing and job growth.

The speakers Volker Quaschning, Professor for Renewable Energy, University of Applied Sciences in Berlin (HTW Berlin) and Kathy Weiss, Vice President, Government Relations at First Solar expressed their expectation of continuing high amounts of newly installed photovoltaic systems over the course of the next years which would trigger further cost reductions. Policy is an important factor in both countries and especially the German feed-in tariffs have proven to be an accurate and successful policy tool providing private investors with the necessary incentive.

The speakers similarly focused on the issues faced in building a future grid and establishing a power mix that is flexible enough to cope with a higher share of decentralized renewable power generation. The speakers agreed that it will require the shutdown of old, baseload power such as coal and nuclear power plants. Nonetheless and even if drastic changes are to be expected, a high share of renewables will be the most prosperous way to achieve a low carbon economy in reasonable time and at a reasonable cost while a dynamic transatlantic exchange is the way to strengthen the development.

Volker Quaschning: Presentation (pdf format)

Kathy Weiss: Presentation (pdf format)