COP30: UN Climate Change Conference in Belém, Brazil

The 30th UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) will take place in Belém, Brazil, from November 10 to 21, 2025.

This dossier compiles analyses and background information on key debates at COP30

Analyses | Publications | Regional Perspectives

Mehrere Hochhäuser hinter Flussufer mit Boot und Häusern im Vordergrund, Rauch steigt zwischen Bäumen auf. — Image credits

About COP30

Result

COP30 has shown that consensus in climate multilateralism is hard to find these days – with or without the US, which was absent for the first time. Key issues such as phasing out fossil fuels and delivering comprehensive climate finance to the Global South remain unresolved.

No agreement could be reached on a formal roadmap process for ending fossil fuels and deforestation. Instead, the Brazilian COP presidency announced that it would launch a roadmap process outside the official negotiations. Showing true leadership, Colombia is also committed to moving ahead: it has announced plans to organise the first global conference on phasing out fossil fuels in April 2026.

This shows once again the urgent need for reforms of the UNFCCC system to push the fossil fuel industry out of climate negotiations and enable effective multilateral decision-making and action – if needed against the interests of individual blocking governments that fight to uphold the status quo.

Finally, after a dragging struggle between Australia and Turkey on the hosting of COP31, a compromise was reached: Turkey will physically host COP31 in Antalya, but Australia will be lead on the political negotiations and will convene a pre-COP meeting in the Pacific.

COP30 Key Issues

International climate finance:
The “Baku to Belém Roadmap to 1.3 Trillion” aims to close the large gap between the disappointing outcome of COP29 and the financial needs of the Global South.

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) 3.0:
All signatory states must submit their climate targets for 2035 this year. The collective efforts will be evaluated at COP30. Expected outcome: the world is far from limiting global warming to 1.5°C.

Adaptation to the climate crisis:
A priority for the Brazilian presidency; the Global Goal on Adaptation is under discussion. Demand from the Global South: Tripling of climate finance for climate adaptation.

International forest conservation initiative:
Brazil aims to launch the “Tropical Forest Forever Fund.” The BRICS countries recently expressed their support for this initiative, but there is also a lot of criticism.

Brazil

There was a lot of hope and pressure on the host country: to achieve progress in international climate policy, while international cooperation and solidarity are coming under increasing pressure. Added to this were domestic political challenges and contradictions.

For the first time in several years, there was also a major civil society summit, which served as a meeting place and forum for exchange between social movements and civil society.

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Recording from November 5th, 2025

Böll.Global | COP30 Climate Conference Without the US - What Can We Expect?

Online discussion with:

Luisa Neubauer, German climate activist and publicist
Liane Schalatek, Deputy Director, Washington D.C., Heinrich Böll Foundation
Regine Schönenberg, Director, Rio de Janeiro, Heinrich Böll Foundation
Michael Bloss, Member of the European Parliament, Group: Greens/EFA

COP30: Evaluation

A man speaks as "COP President" at the COP30 climate conference in Belém, Brazil; another man with headset sits to his right.

The Optimism of Mutirão Faced Its Reckoning at COP30 in Belém

Analysis

The Brazilian Presidency had promised that COP30 in Belém would be the “COP of truth” and “COP of implementation”, held in the spirit of Mutirão with the global community working together to face the climate emergency. It faced a reckoning instead.

Liane Schalatek, Marcelo Montenegro, Linda Schneider

Debt, Climate, and Geopolitics: What Really Moved the G20 and COP30

Analysis

The G20 Summit and COP30 converged at a time of exceptional strain on the multilateral system. As geopolitical divides widened, coalitions of the willing nonetheless succeeded in keeping especially debt sustainability on the international agenda.

Sarah Ribbert

COP30: Overview

amazon-free-of-gas-and-oil-protest-in-bonn

COP30: Can the Baku-To-Belém Roadmap Put Global Climate Finance on the Right Path?

Analysis

The Baku-to-Belém Roadmap aims to close the gap between the disappointing COP29 target of 300 US dollars billion annually and the envisioned 1.3 trillion US dollars in climate finance per year by 2035. Will it find support at COP30?

Liane Schalatek

Several wind turbines stand on a green hill, behind them the sea with parallel lines and a cloudy sky. A path winds its way through the terrain.

China’s New Climate Targets: Will China Lead the Global Climate Fight?

Analysis

As the US retreats from the global climate agenda and the EU struggles to fill the leadership gap, many are looking to China and ask: What can we expect from China's new Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) for 2035?

Belinda Schäpe, Lauri Myllyvirta

Group of activists holds banner reading "Climate Reparations now" and signs like "Show us the money"

Trump Can Leave the Paris Agreement Behind, but Not America’s Climate Finance Obligations

Analysis

Leaving the Paris Agreement does not erase the legal obligation of the United States to provide climate finance to developing countries - and at a scale that is commensurate with the country’s global responsibility as the historically largest emitter.

Liane Schalatek, Carla Adams

Bright salt flats with straight lines, turquoise-green basins for lithium mining on the right in a dry mountain landscape.

COP30: “The Discussion Around Minerals Can Be Seen as a Stick in the Spokes of the Bike”

Interview

At COP28, António Guterres announced principles to tackle the implications of minerals extraction. Apart from this, minerals have been fairly invisible on any COP agenda. Emily Iona Stewart explains why this year could be different.

The UN Framework Climate Convention and its implementation after Kyoto & Paris

Analysis

The danger posed by global climate and environmental crises has been known for decades, but so far it has not been possible to address them effectively and fairly on a global scale. An overview of the most important international climate agreements, how they work, their potential and the challenges they face.

Linda Schneider , Liane Schalatek

A group of people hold protest signs and a large banner in front of the International Court of Justice in The Hague, banner reads: "COURTS HAVE SPOKEN – GOVERNMENTS MUST ACT NOW"

“The Era of Voluntary Emissions Targets Is Over”

Interview

Human rights expert Lotte Leicht explains how the International Court of Justice’s advisory opinion reshapes the climate debate: states are legally bound to prevent climate harm. At COP30, states can no longer treat climate action as optional.

International Court of Justice Decision Turns Climate Justice into Law

Analysis

The recent ICJ ruling is a landmark decision for the fight against climate change, addressing state responsibility for ambitious, scientifically supported climate action. It also clears the path for potential climate reparations in the future.

Liane Schalatek

Publications

A change of course. On the road to a climate-just world

Is it utopian to insist on a good life for all in the face of the climate crisis? No more unrealistic than the utopia of endless growth on a finite planet on the backs of the weakest. On the road to a climate-just world” describes ways to create a sustainable world worth living in for everyone - and exposes false hopes and dangerous false solutions.

Susanne Schwarz, Verena Kern, Linda Schneider , Johanna Sydow, Susann Scherbarth, Anika Schroeder

Water Atlas 2025

Atlas

The Water Atlas presents the complexity and urgency of global water issues in a visually compelling, accessible format - from the unequal distribution of water and industrial pollution to climate-linked water insecurity and geopolitical tensions.

COP30: Regional Perspectives

Ein Aufsteller des Logos der COP 30 steht vor einem Gebäude.

COP 30: How Argentina Went from Pioneer to Laggard in International Climate Policy

Analyse

With the start of COP30, Argentina finds itself on the sidelines of international climate diplomacy. The country is currently experiencing a severe dismantling of institutions and new dependence on extractivism – yet it was once a pioneer in climate protection.

Camila Mercure

People are sitting at a long table at a climate conference, with plants in the foreground and the words “PRE-COP30 MEETING” in the background.

COP30 in the Rhythm of Brazil: Working Together for Change

Analysis

The international context is marked by tensions: no easy task for the Brazilian presidency at COP30. Our authors analyze how Brazil could use its diplomatic ability to synchronize different interests.

Rodrigo Astorga Hering, Natalia Zumelzu

COP30 in Brazil: Climate Change and the Point of No Return

Analysis

Climate governance has been captured by solutions that involve the financialization of nature. The first COP in the Amazon is an opportunity to face the impacts of these projects, betting on the rights and territorial sovereignty of Amazonian populations.

Camila Moreno

Graphic with plants, watering can, and hands; text: "COP30 in Brazil", "positive futures", logos of Goethe-Institut, Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung, Visão Coop.

The Positive Futures Project and COP30

Dossier

The Positive Futures Platform combines ancestral wisdom, knowledge from the peripheries, and academic production on a platform specifically designed to bring people together to build positive futures.

Photo: Two people walk along a narrow path in a lush, tropical landscape with tall palm trees. The sky is partly cloudy.

Brazil: Agroecology as a Climate Solution Based on Territory

Background

The concept of land liberation through agroecology includes, in turn, the freedom of forests, in opposition to forms of privatization, commodification, and financialization of nature that reduce forests to mere credits.

Ariana Gomes, Diogo Cabral, Pedro Martins

Illustration of a world map on a lily pad with Amazon animals, plants, buildings, and a boat. Text is overlaid on the image

Brazilian Amazon Atlas

Atlas

Since its colonization, the Amazon region has served as a projection surface for foreign ideas and desires. With the Brazilian Amazon Atlas, we want to deconstruct common stereotypes about the region - and show it from the perspective of its diverse inhabitants.