by Farrukh Saleem
Extremists seek a weakened Pakistani state allowing them time and territory to propagate their agenda. Chaos is therefore in the interest of extremists.
One, Democrats in the US congress have demanded the reinstatement of the judiciary as it was prior to the Provisional Constitutional Order, i.e. the declaration of the state of emergency (remember, Democrats control a majority both in the Senate and the House of Representatives). Two, if the Bush Administration does not act, Congress seems determined to review assistance to Pakistan. Three, the world views Benazir Bhutto as the politician willing and capable of isolating extremist elements in Pakistan’s extraordinarily volatile political theatre. Four, within Pakistan, Benazir Bhutto is the only politician whose charisma can bring masses out on to the streets. Five, it is becoming clearer that the suspension of the constitution did not have America’s sanction. Six, the military-led government is under intense pressure – more from outside Pakistan than from inside – and martial law is not sustainable.
In all probability the Bhutto-Musharraf deal is off but at least one of the parties to the deal has not yet realised it. Upon that realisation, Bhutto will begin to get the same treatment as is being meted out to other players in the opposition.
Musharraf has defied the US and his defiance will come at a costs. As far as the United States is concerned, the suspension of the constitution has diverted the attention of our security apparatus from fighting the ‘war on terror’ to suppressing dissent at home. This runs counter to American strategic interests that would like to see Pakistan’s army as a centrepiece in the ‘war on terror’ and supported by a genuinely popular political force.
Pakistan’s army is more central to everything right now – internally as well as externally – than ever before. Pakistan is deeply divided and its survival as a single entity needs a united Pakistan Army. The Pakistan Army is fighting the ‘war on terror’. The Pakistan Army is fighting extremists, both local and foreign. The Pakistan Army is fighting the ‘talibanisation of Pakistan’. The Pakistan Army is pitched against Pakistani lawyers and judges. The Pakistan Army is called upon to take on civil society. To be certain, fighting on so many fronts is not sustainable.
Extremists seek a weakened Pakistani state as this will give them time and territory to propagate their agenda. Chaos is therefore in the interest of extremists. Remember, the United States justified the war on Afghanistan with Al Qaeda camps on Afghan territory. US intelligence agencies claim that those camps have now moved to Pakistan.
For Bhutto, it is a difficult balancing act to bring about democracy without causing chaos (chaos will not favour the mainstream secular opposition). Yet, in the final analysis, chaos may eventually become unavoidable.
In the United States, the primary campaign season is in full swing. Iran is off and Pakistan is on. Senator Joseph Biden, chairman of the powerful US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, along with Senator John Kerry, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on Near East and South and Central Asian Affairs, has introduced a resolution to “restore the independent judiciary ...” Senator Barack Obama, a presidential candidate, has written a letter to Senator Robert Byrd, chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee, suggesting the suspension of some assistance to Pakistan.
In all probability, neither the White House nor the military-led government in Pakistan will be able to withstand the kind of pressure the Democrats are building up in Congress.
For Pakistanis, priority number one must be the restoration of the rule of law. Priority number two is to decide as to who should rule Pakistan. Priority number three is to decide how the talibanisation of Pakistan should be handled. Priority number four is to decide on Pakistan’s role in the global ‘war on terror’.
Our priority number one is the restoration of the judiciary as it was prior to the declaration of the state of emergency. Our priority number two is elections. But elections under martial law, under the Provisional Constitutional Order with independent TV channels off the air, the judiciary in prison and civil rights suspended will be a joke, a farce and a circus all rolled into one.
While Musharraf, our uniformed politician, is on a direct collision course with our non-uniformed politicians – all seeking to capture more political power than the other – Pakistani territory is being taken over by extremist forces. To be sure, the war for the soul of Pakistan is being fought neither in Lahore nor in Islamabad but in Swat district in the North-West Frontier Province.
Democracy under the Army Act will not work. Democracy without judiciary will be meaningless. Elections under rule of force – as opposed to rule of law – will be acceptable neither within nor outside Pakistan.
Dr Farrukh Saleem is an Islamabad-based economist and analyst.