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by Bidjan Tobias Nashat
The Brussels conference on Iran and its nuclear ambitions provided insight into the role of the international community, international organizations, and the Middle Eastern states. It shed light on the disagreements between experts and policymakers on almost every single issue. The participants characterized the EU’s multilateral negotiation approach as successful because it maintained an international consensus, but as unsuccessful in delivering the security guarantees, in which Iran’s leadership is interested. Furthermore, most participants stressed the need for direct negotiations between the US and Iran, but viewed them as unlikely to be successful at the moment. The current negotiations at the UN Security Council were regarded as problematic due to the demand for zero-enrichment, which the Iranian side had already ruled out. Moreover, there was disagreement about whether the case should be referred back to the IAEA or if unconditional negotiations would be successful. There was agreement about the ineffective role of the current sanctions regime. Russia’s opposition to sanctions was regarded as particularly unhelpful at the moment. Another part of the debate focused on the use of double standards between democracies and autocracies and the revival of nuclear energy.
With regard to the regional dynamics of the conflict, Israel will consider military strikes as a last resort as nobody can assure Iran’s peacefulness were it to acquire nuclear weapons. In that event, Turkey will most likely develop nuclear weapons to balance the Iranian threat. The participants stressed that the Shia-Sunni divide has been oversimplified by the Western media. The participants could not agree on whether Iran is benefiting from the current regional developments or if they threaten its own stability as well. There was agreement on the dividedness and indecisiveness of the Iranian regime. However, were Iran to acquire nuclear weapons, its negative role in the region would worsen.
A number of ways forward were discussed based on pessimistic and more optimistic scenarios. Re-establishing trust was mentioned as a primary goal. Some participants emphasized that if none of the negotiations deliver results, tougher economic sanctions and the threat of military force might be necessary.