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By Bidjan Tobias Nashat
The Istanbul debate on dealing with the Iranian nuclear program offered a view into the positions of Turkey as one of Iran’s neighbors during a challenging political period for the country. Iran is not on top of the current Turkish policy agenda as the internal and EU-related issues are of bigger concern. While some participants saw the Iranian nuclear program as a threat to Turkey’s national security, others emphasized Western double standards and the flaws of the nonproliferation regime. The latter appeared to view an Iranian nuclear weapons capability rather as a Western problem than a challenge to the international community
Nevertheless, some participants voiced concerns about the implications of an Iranian nuclear weapons capability stressing that it would render Turkey’s strategic advantage obsolete and force the country to seek more Western military and political support. Whether Turkey would also develop nuclear weapons in case of an Iranian nuclear bomb, was an intensely debated topic.
The participants could not agree why Iran is developing nuclear weapons. Some participants characterized the Iranian intentions as being of an entirely defensive nature and as a response to the US invasions in Iraq and Afghanistan. Others strongly disagreed pointing to the long history of the country’s nuclear program and to its aspiration for regional dominance.
Another contentious issue was whether nuclear deterrence can work in the region. The majority of participants held that the concept of mutual assured destruction will work in the Middle East as well while others strongly disagreed, dismissing the notion that the Cold War and the current Middle East are in any way comparable. Many called for a nuclear-weapons-free Middle East. Turkey should send back the US nuclear weapons which are installed on its soil and Israel should give up its nuclear capabilities.
In the case of sanctions on Iran’s energy exports, Turkey dependency on Russia for oil and gas exports would increase dramatically. The country should thus try to play the role of a mediator for negotiations between the US and Iran and support a limited right for Iran to develop nuclear energy in return for an end of support of terrorism. The participants stressed the mutual mistrust between the West and Iran and suggested confidence-building measures to overcome decades of confrontation.