Expanding NATO’s Horizons
In the coming years, the NATO alliance will surely respond, as it always has, to international moments of crisis. But, NATO’s strategy should also take into account the two dominant and interwoven security threats that are currently shaping not only the state of nations, but the state of the planet: global climate change and energy security.
Climate Change as “Threat Multiplier”
The effects of global climate change pose serious risks to the stability of many regions of the world. Such was the conclusion of "National Security and the Threat of Climate Change," a 2007 CNA report written by a Military Advisory Board (MAB) that consisted of eleven of the U.S.’s most respected, retired three- and four-star admirals and generals.
The MAB found that climate change can act as a "threat multiplier" in some of the most fragile regions of the world, by sewing economic, environmental and social instability – the types of security threats already recognized by NATO’s current strategic doctrine.
As the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has done a superb job in documenting, the most direct impacts of climate change will be environmental: rising seas; increased frequency and severity of droughts, heat waves, and floods; retreating glaciers; drying soil; shifting habitats and disease outbreaks; and increased severity of hurricanes and other storms.
These environmental conditions, in turn, will affect human populations by threatening water supplies, decreasing long-term agricultural productivity, stressing human health, and forcing populations to move. Additionally, as individual states and entire regions begin to realize that they lack the capacity to adapt adequately to the effects of climate change, resentment will build towards the developed world that will be viewed as responsible for the consequences they face.
Destabilizing the Globe
Climate change will especially exacerbate already marginal living standards, poverty, and lack of governmental legitimacy in many Asian, African, and Middle Eastern nations where widespread political instability and failed states are already international security concerns. In Asia, the fresh water supply of hundreds of millions of people derives from glaciers that may not exist by mid-century. In Africa, desertification is already destroying land that supports crops and animals; many point to climatic changes as the root cause of the genocide in Darfur. In the Middle East, water will become increasingly valuable as rising seas spill over and seep into precious fresh water aquifers.
In weakened and failing states with an already thin margin for survival, these conditions will increasingly produce societal unrest, and a greater penchant for authoritarianism and radical ideologies. As a result, it is likely that there will be a greater need for the international community to engage in human assistance missions and disaster response.
Perhaps the most dangerous and destabilizing outcome of the changing climate will be the mass migration of populations in those countries unable to respond to the crisis. Migrations within regions, within nations, and across international borders produce internal disorder, poverty, and disenfranchisement and threaten effective governance. Many members of the NATO alliance are already feeling the squeeze of migration that is fueled by economic disparity; climate change will only tighten that squeeze. With a global population that is still increasing – and has increased by one billion people in only the last dozen years – migratory pressures will generate serious problems in the coming decades.
The melting of the Arctic ice cap is shaping up to become perhaps the first test of climate change impacts for several NATO members, including the US, Canada, Norway, Iceland, and Denmark. As the ice melts in the Arctic Ocean, these nations and Russia are scrambling to lay claim to the resources and valuable materials that have proven too difficult to extract – until now. In August 2007, the Russians tried to stake their claim by planting their flag 14,000 feet below the North Pole. As the ice continues to thin and melt and the Northwest Passage becomes established as a viable trade route, the legal disputes and competition for resources will become more heated.
NATO Secretary General de Hoop Scheffer has already recognized the issues arising in the Arctic. “Although the long-term implications of climate change and the retreating ice cap in the Arctic are still unclear, what is very clear is that the High North is going to require even more of the alliance's attention in the coming years,” he said in January of 2009. "Here in the High North, climate change is not a fanciful idea - it is already a reality."
The Search for Fuel
The struggle to manage the impacts of climate change will take place at the same time that the world is forced to undergo a fundamental change in the way it uses energy. The age of inexpensive fossil energy will come to its conclusion within the next couple of decades, surely before the world is prepared to deal with its demise. To sustain the rate of progress enjoyed during the 20th century, new and secure sources of energy must be developed that are sustainable, accessible, and affordable. While there are a myriad of reasons for moving away from carbon emitting, fossil-based fuels – including the mitigation of climate change – the reality is that we will soon have no choice but to diversify our supply: at some point, there will simply not be enough oil pumped from the ground to fill all of the blue barrels that the world demands.
Until sustainable, secure energy sources have been developed, members of the NATO alliance - like the rest of the world - will remain vulnerable to the state-controlled supplies of oil- and gas-rich countries. NATO’s dependence on these states complicates foreign relations and forces unwelcome compromises on issues such as human rights and support of democracy. This dependence also creates a significant vulnerability to supply disruptions – a vulnerability that has not gone unnoticed by various terrorist and criminal organizations over the past several years.
In addition to the supply and disruption vulnerabilities associated with tightening supplies, many of the oil and gas producing regions of the world will be impacted severely by climate change. Many areas of the Middle East are already facing severe water shortages that will only worsen as temperatures increase, desertification worsens, and aquifers are salinated by rising seas. The oil-rich Niger Delta, which has a population of 20 million people, is particularly vulnerable to rising seas and increased extreme weather events that will intensify the growing population unrest. As was demonstrated by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005, the oil infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico is susceptible to hurricanes of increasing strength.
A Critical Year
Given the threats and vulnerabilities presented by climate change and energy security, the NATO countries should begin immediately to play a leadership role in addressing these issues. Doing so will help to improve international stability and could reduce the need for future NATO military missions. With the recent change in the American government, NATO can depend on the U.S. to be an active partner that will play a critical leadership role in these efforts. In December of 2008, then President-Elect Obama made clear his position on climate change when he stated, "This is a matter of urgency and of national security and it has to be dealt with in a serious way. That's what I intend my administration to do."
In regard to mitigating the worst impacts of climate change, 2009 will be a critical year: in December, the world’s governments will convene in Copenhagen to negotiate the next international agreement on climate change-inducing greenhouse gas emissions. Through focusing publicly on the security threats of climate change throughout 2009, the NATO members can serve as a strong bloc to help ensure that a meaningful agreement is reached in Copenhagen.
In addition, the military transformation efforts of NATO members should include supporting the adoption of technologies and policies that would improve energy security, mitigate climate change, and build the capacity of developing countries to adapt to climate change impacts. By pursuing renewable, low carbon, and efficient technologies, the NATO countries will not only help to alleviate future threats, but also help to improve their mission effectiveness. In Afghanistan, these types of technologies – including garbage-to-electricity generators and foam-insulated tents for use in the desert – have already demonstrated their operational value. Including such guidance in their long-term strategic planning would signal the NATO members’ strong commitment to prevent the future security threats associated with climate and energy.
While the threats of 1949 are vastly different than those of 2009, NATO can still play a leading role in assuring the security of its members. Indeed, it is only prudent for the member states and their military planners to prepare for continued climate change and dwindling energy resources. As the most prominent military alliance in the world, NATO can and must play a role not only in mitigating these crises, but in leading the fight to prevent them.
Sherri Goodman is General Counsel and Corporate Secretary of CNA (Center for Naval Analysis) and serves as Executive Director of the Military Advisory Board for CNA's National Security and the Threat of Climate Change project.
David Catarious is an Analyst and Project Director at CNA; he was a co-author of the CNA report National Security and the Threat of Climate Change.