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By Bidjan Tobias Nashat
The roundtable discussion “Dealing with the Iranian Nuclear Program – The role of Russia in the negotiation process” at the Carnegie Moscow Center on 26 February 2008, revealed a number of recurring themes. According to the majority of participants, Russia’s current Iran policy is guided mainly by tactical calculations. The Russian leadership views Iran as a bargaining chip in its troubled relationship with the US. Russia longs to be seen as a world power again after its humiliating demise in the 1990s. It does not view Iran as a threat but rather as a legitimate regional ally against Islamic fundamentalists.
The participants emphasized that Russia’s foreign policy priorities differ from the US and Europe’s in so far as it is focused on the planned US missile defense system in Eastern Europe and the situation in Kosovo. The lack of a foreign policy strategy in the Middle East is not only apparent to Russian foreign policy experts but to the countries in the region as well. Consequently, as some participants pointed out, Russia is not seen as a credible player in the Middle East and might overestimate its own role.
Overall, there seemed to be a willingness on the Russian side to be part of a solution involving a Russian role in providing nuclear fuel to Iran under the auspices of the UN. Due to the Iranian mistrust of the West, any solution should enable Iran to save its face.
The participants highlighted the dilemma in which the Iranian leadership finds itself in. On the one hand, Iran’s position in the region had become stronger as a result of the US invasion into Iraq. On the other hand, they feel threatened by US forces in Iraq and Afghanistan. In return, the nuclear program has in recent years developed into a matter of national pride and self-sustainability.
There was a contentious debate on how US-Russian relations could be improved. Some participants urged for the Russian leadership to work together on Iran with a new US administration. An interesting aspect of the debate was that it focused almost entirely on the crisis of US-Russian relations and their importance for the Iranian nuclear crisis. Europe’s role in negotiating the Iranian nuclear program remained unaddressed. The Russian desire to negotiate at eye-level with the US could be a possible explanation thereof.