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By Helga Flores-Trejo and Bidjan Tobias Nashat
The roundtable discussion “Dealing with the Iranian Nuclear Program – the Negotiation Process within the UN Security Council” was organized in cooperation with the Aspen Institute Berlin and held at the German House in New York. Consensus existed among the participants that the power and conflict structures in the Middle East have undergone a tectonic shift since the war in Iraq. In the perceptions of the Arab countries, Iranian-Arab rivalry has supplanted the Israeli-Palestinian conflict that was the focus of tensions a few years ago. The Arab countries also fear Iran’s growing hegemony in the region which will not be contained by sanctions and diplomacy.
With regard to the conflict in Iraq, some participants stressed that not all of the Arab countries neighboring Iraq are interested in its stability. Others cautioned that the accusation of interference in Iraq could trigger a US attack on Iran.
The participants could not agree on whether security guarantees for Iran by the US would improve the situation. Due to Iran’s support for terrorist organizations in the region and its effort to acquire weapons of mass destruction no US government would be in a position to offer Iran security guarantees. Others stressed that North Korea had continued to defy the international community even after they had received security guarantees.
Another issue was the question of whether the Iranian regime itself is the problem, or merely the Iranian nuclear program. Some called for a US recognition of the Islamic Republic while others singled out the Iranian regime as the actual problem.
With regard to sanctions, the majority of the participants deemed them to be more of a symbolic nature than of true economic significance. The participants highlighted the challenge of keeping Russia and China on board. They also pointed to the UN Security Council as the best suited to deal with the Iranian nuclear program since effective sanctions could not be realized by a “coalition of the willing”. However, the current window of opportunity for negotiations could close as soon as the Iranian nuclear program reaches a breakthrough.
Some participants also questioned the current negotiation objectives in New York and emphasized that the objective should be a stable and peaceful region, not an end to Iranian enrichment. Integrating Iran in negotiations and building mutual trust while continuing to pressure the regime would be the right approach.