Since Germany’s last federal election in 2025, its centrist parties have lost large numbers of voters to the fringes – particularly to the Right. At the same time, the Greens have also regained ground. A new study gives clues as to how a centre-left political platform can secure a strong governing majority.
Zohran Mamdani in New York, Rob Jetten in the Netherlands, Sisse Marie Welling in Copenhagen, and Mark Carney in Canada have two main things in common: a proactive centre-left political agenda and recent success at the polls. But the similarities do not end there. The Heinrich Boell Foundation’s study "Wie Wahlen gewonnen werden" [How elections are won], published earlier this month, identifies recurring patterns in successful centre-left campaigns across different political contexts. While not claiming to provide a blueprint for electoral victory, the study does offer insights into which factors currently contribute most significantly to success. Four of these stand out in particular.
Leaders who connect with people
Successful election campaigns start with credible candidates. This does not mean that politicians must have universal appeal or represent every position. What is crucial is that people feel heard by a party’s senior figures and believe their concerns are being taken seriously. Such approachability must be genuine rather than orchestrated and backed by a party that also credibly embodies it.
Concrete proposals to improve people’s lives
It might sound clichéd, but particularly in the current geopolitical, economic, and social climate, concrete and feasible proposals for improving people’s lives must be at the forefront of political platforms. Affordable housing, free nursery places, reliable local transport – even being able to see trees from one’s window; these are tangible improvements that can be achieved through politics, in partnership with citizens. This is precisely where their political strength lies.
Denying the ”culture war” a foothold
The electoral successes of populist, authoritarian, right-wing forces have a common ingredient: exclusion, division, and polarisation. This dangerous mix has been particularly effective since at least the Covid-19 pandemic. Added to this is the spread of disinformation and hate on social media, including from abroad. Our study shows that by adopting a clear stance, an open tone, and an inclusive rather than divisive approach, the centre-left can achieve electoral success. Refusing to engage in identity politics – which, at its core, is designed to divide – and instead treating diverse backgrounds, thinking, and interests as democratic normality can take the wind out of populists’ sails.
The courage to embrace difference
Last but not least, the study demonstrates that there is no single, definitive approach that can guarantee success across all contexts. Globalisation and digitalisation mean that many political issues are now transnational. Yet people’s lives unfold not on a global scale but within families, neighbourhoods, local communities, and regions – under diverse structural, political, and cultural conditions and accompanied by a range of challenging situations. Successful campaigns take these differences seriously and develop proposals that are tailored to local situations.
While the study does not claim to provide a magic formula for electoral victory, it does reveal a recurring pattern in successful centre-left campaigns. Elections are not won by playing defensively or focusing on the issues raised by political opponents. They are won by those with a desire to shape the future and with their own clear, reality-based, workable proposals. Those on the centre-left who internalise this principle stand a good chance of regaining majorities. Cem Özdemir’s success in Baden-Württemberg demonstrates the potential inherent in this type of political platform. This provides the Greens in particular with the chance to learn the right lessons and counter defensive politics in this country. It is a matter of developing a political platform for Germany as a whole and assuming responsibility as a leader of the centre-left.
Get Involved - Presidents' column
Get involved! There’s no other way to be real – thus the message of Heinrich Böll, and, to this day, his encouragement is inspiring us. With this column the Presidents of the Foundation involve themselves in current social and political debates. This column will appear each month, authored, in turn, by Jan Philipp Albrecht and Imme Scholz.