When the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan five years ago, the EU set out conditions for engagement, but the prospect of them being fulfilled is more remote than ever. Nevertheless, ties are growing closer.
Images from Kabul in 2021 have been etched into our collective memories. People clinging to departing aeroplanes, parents passing their children over barbed wire at the airport, thousands trying desperately to escape a regime almost no one believed would return. The political implications seemed just as clear: there could be no “business as usual” with the Taliban. The European Union set out unequivocal conditions for any engagement: respect for human rights, particularly the rights of women and girls, an inclusive government, minimum rule-of-law standards, and compliance with international obligations.
Five years on, the conclusion is unambiguous: the prospect of these conditions being fulfilled is even more remote than in 2021. Women are systematically excluded from public life, and girls are denied access to secondary education. In May, the minimum age for marriage was effectively abolished by decree, and the institutionalisation of gender-based violence is proceeding apace. Comparing today’s situation to that of five years ago, it is clear that the regime has failed to move any closer to European standards.
And yet something is changing. Not in Kabul, however; within the EU. While the German government emphasises its non-recognition of the Taliban regime, contact is intensifying. Taliban representatives are taking on consular duties in Germany, and further formats for dialogue are under discussion. When seen in terms of foreign policy, this diplomatic distinction is less significant than Berlin would have us believe. International recognition rarely begins with a formal ceremony. It starts with talks, visas, practical cooperation, and the simple fact of being treated as a negotiating partner. It is precisely this form of gradual normalisation that the Taliban have been striving for since their takeover.
What is crucial here is not only that these contacts are being established, but why this is happening. Not because of the women who have been systematically deprived of their rights for years. Not because of the people to whom Germany has promised protection and who, in many cases, are still waiting to leave Afghanistan. But because of the domestic interests that have shaped political action and debate for years. It is precisely here that the conditions set by Europe are losing their binding nature. The German government is finding ways to negotiate with the Taliban over deportations. Such political resolve is far less evident when it comes to bringing at-risk local staff members, judges, journalists, and women’s rights activists to Germany – people to whom protection was pledged long ago.
The problem does not end at the German border. Those in Brussels who are considering entering into discussions with the Taliban will be dealing with more than just Afghanistan; the credibility of Europe’s foreign policy is at stake here. Authoritarian regimes are keeping a close eye on the signals sent by democracies. If cooperation on migration issues opens up political avenues in spite of an unchanged human rights situation, a dangerous precedent is set. The message is then no longer, “Meet our conditions, and we’ll talk.” Instead, it reads, “Become indispensable to us on an issue that matters to us, then our conditions will become negotiable.”
The lessons to be gleaned from the past five years do not only concern Afghanistan but also Europe. The Taliban did not have to grant women rights, allow opposition parties, or fulfil any of the other conditions set by the EU. They simply had to wait long enough for Europe to stop making these a requirement. The conditions were never a test for the Taliban; they became a test for Europe. The EU is thus setting a precedent. It is not only the Taliban who will draw conclusions from this.
Get Involved - Presidents' column
Get involved! There’s no other way to be real – thus the message of Heinrich Böll, and, to this day, his encouragement is inspiring us. With this column the Presidents of the Foundation involve themselves in current social and political debates. This column will appear each month, authored, in turn, by Jan Philipp Albrecht and Imme Scholz.