Rally-Round-the-Flag or International Opposition Effect: Domestic Opposition in Sanctioned Regimes
International sanctions are one of the most commonly used foreign policy tools to confront states’ undesired behavior and to support democracy and human rights. Oftentimes, the existence of a strong enough internal opposition is discussed as crucial for their effectiveness. However, if domestic opposition movements can benefit from such external pressure remains unclear. Case studies have observed diametrically opposed ways how sanctions affect them. A “rally-round-the-flag” effect may occur when the ruling elite uses sanctions to enhance feelings of solidarity and nationalism. On the other hand, sanctions can discredit the regime internationally, weaken it economically and contribute to an internal opposition effect. While signals send by sanctions, which are prone to be used as symbols in the discursive struggle between the regime and the opposition, appear to be of key importance in that respect, they have been insufficiently analyzed, especially from a comparative perspective. The literature on social movements adds to our understanding of mobilizing dissent. Building upon a framework systematically integrating insights from these two strands of literature, a fuzzy set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) serves to identify configurations of conditions under which domestic opposition in regimes under sanctions is enabled or constrained. This will be supplemented by an in-depth analysis of two case studies.