With giant strides humanity is approaching a population level of ten billion. Yet, even today, water and food are scarce in many parts of the world. Fossil fuels have been almost fully exploited, and, should we continue at the current rate, within 25 years the atmosphere will not be able to absorb any more greenhouse gases without raising temperature levels by more than 2° Celsius. Should this threshold be passed, the self-reinforcing dynamics of climate processes could lessen the earth’s capability to sustain human life to under five billion people.
Humanity thus needs a global security strategy that will enable it to produce additional water and food on a grand scale, preserve biological diversity, and stabilise the earth’s climate. In addition, such a security strategy should give the world’s poor – about 80 per cent of the global population – the chance to catch up on development and create wealth on a level that may end the further growth of humankind.
Whether such a strategy will succeed, is an open question. Drinking water, food, and a certain level of prosperity for all could theoretically be achieved through technology and additional energy – provided the latter is available and can be rapidly and cheaply deployed. It is possible to preserve biological diversity and stabilise the climate, yet only, if we stop using fossil fuels right now; the fight to end poverty will be a more drawn-out process.
The livelihoods of a global population of ten billion are at stake. A worldwide transition to renewable energies has thus to be a number one priority and must be speedily implemented. Desertec’s approach to tap the as yet unused solar and wind energy of the desert on a grand scale could make such a transition feasible. Already today, the cost of renewable energies would be below that of fossil-based energy – if the environmental damage caused by the latter were part of the price. The chances to avoid self-reinforcing climate change will be the greater, the more we succeed in using and blending all forms of renewable energy, thus achieving a very speedy transition. When it comes to security, cost is usually not the first consideration. As with emergency medical care, it is all about swiftness.
Within six hours the world’s deserts receive as much solar energy as, at present, humanity uses within a year. Appropriate technology will enable us to turn this into electricity and distribute it via grids all over the world. In addition, a number of desert regions have ample wind energy resources. With regard to global security, some of the decisive qualities of desert-based solar energy are:
- High-voltage direct current enables us to provide over 90 per cent of the global population with solar energy from the deserts.
- Thermal energy storage makes it possible to provide electricity from solar thermal energy sources all around the clock.
- With fossil emergency backup, hybrid power stations can provide solar thermal energy at all times.
- Desalination and co-generation enable us to produce drinking water for the quickly growing populations in arid regions.
- The opening up of the deserts’ energy potential by industrial countries will thus provide cheap resources for developing countries.
All the technologies needed are available and have been in use for years. If, by 2050, we want to meet about 50 per cent of the then possible global demand of electricity of 60 petawatt hours (Germany currently uses 0.5 petawatt hours p.a.) through solar thermal energy, it will be necessary to produce solar collectors at a rate of one gigawatt of capacity per day. Automation, as used in car manufacturing, will make this possible. If we follow such a course, we will be able to phase out the fossil-based production of electricity over the course of 25 years. The investment necessary will have to be made anyway – be it in fossil, nuclear, or solar power stations.
If the speedy global substitution of fossil fuels with local renewable sources of energy, as well as with Desertec, is being pursued, the challenges regarding supply and stability posed by a world population of ten billion can be resolved. The co-operation between the peoples of the technology belt and those of the sunbelt necessary to achieve this may become an important element in a future global security framework.
Further information: www.desertec.org/en/
Green New Deal / Great Transformation
- Dossier Conference "The Great Transformation" (english/german)
- Böll.Thema: Green New Deal (english)
- Böll.Thema: Going green (english)
- Böll.Thema: Going green (german)