Trump 2.0, Green Transition, and Transatlantic Climate Action
The Biden administration has been arguably the greenest in US history, yet it will be followed by one of the least climate-friendly presidents. Donald Trump is expected to end climate measures and focus on domestic fossil fuel production in the name of energy independence or dominance. Donald Trump has a clear record of dismantling domestic climate protections and walking away from international agreements.
This paper explores how the EU and its member states could adjust their climate policies based on expected Trump administration positions regarding two key elements of global climate action, and possible European responses along the variables of unity and decisiveness.
This paper is an updated version of the publication «US elections and European cohesion: Scenarios for Green Transitions and Transatlantic Climate Action» from October 2024 that contained scenarios for both a Harris and a Trump 2.0 administration.
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Table of contents
Introduction
1. Green (Industrial) Domestic Policies
1.1. Trump 2.0: pro tariff, anti-climate-goals
1.2. Scenario strong EU response: More coordinated EU green industrial policies paired with international liberalization
1.3. Scenario split EU response: EU faces US tariffs, pulled into different camps
1.4. Scenario stuck EU response: EU maintains current level of unity rhetorically, but action stalls
2. The International Climate Agenda (G7 and COP)
2.1. Trump 2.0: An anti-climate, tough on China agenda
2.2. Scenario strong EU position: EU keeps agenda alive, barely
2.3. Scenario split EU position: Climate action in disrepair
2.4. Scenario stuck EU response: Negotiations continue, progress stalls
3. Conclusion
The Authors