The international context is marked by tensions: no easy task for the Brazilian presidency at COP30. Our authors analyze how Brazil could use its diplomatic ability to synchronize different interests demonstrating productive ways forward for multilateralism.
Multilateralism is at a crossroads. The institutions that were once created to coordinate global cooperation are now showing clear signs of fatigue – especially at a time when climate policy, economic, and technological risks are intertwined. Global greenhouse gas emissions may have only just peaked or in fact still continue to rise slightly, climate commitments are not being met, and the gap between promises and actual results is widening.
At the same time, the geopolitical balance of power is shifting: climate protection has become a key area in which the most powerful players exert political, technological, and economic influence – and thus adapt the global pace to their own interests.
Against this backdrop, the COP30 climate conference in Belém will be more than just another summit. It will be a test of whether international cooperation can actually be translated into concrete action – or whether it will remain stuck in formal declarations. In a world where the major powers act at different speeds and with different priorities, climate policy must regain credibility and coherence.
COP30 could mark a turning point, provided that it succeeds in showing that cooperation is possible even between actors with asymmetrical interests. As host, Brazil has the opportunity to act as a mediator and catalyst, demonstrating once more that leadership is based not only on economic or military power, but also on democratic legitimacy and the ability to build consensus.
Climate Warnings Show Urgent Need for Action
Climate indicators clearly show that the need for action is not only theoretical but structural in nature. According to the World Meteorological Organization, CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere in 2024 was over 424 ppm – an increase of 144 ppm compared to pre-industrial levels and a record increase of 3.5 ppm within just one year. This jump illustrates that the capacity of natural sinks – forests, soils, and oceans – to draw down carbon is declining.
COP30 should focus not only on climate and environmental goals, but also on political and economic decisions.
The consequences are concrete and multifaceted. In 2024, the global average temperature was more than 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels – this could mark the beginning of the critical 1.5 °C threshold (which is defined over a 10-year period). This warming has led to a significant increase in extreme weather events: more frequent and widespread forest fires that destroy ecosystems and cause significant carbon emissions; prolonged droughts, heat waves, floods, and desertification processes that threaten territorial, ecological, and social security. These phenomena not only cause economic losses, but also weaken social security systems, exacerbate existing inequalities, and reduce institutional resilience to multiple crises.
The scale of these challenges requires close links between environmental, economic, and technology policies. Climate protection has long been a question of competitiveness and security: it determines who takes the lead in the production of key technologies, how financial resources are distributed, and what rules govern international incentive systems. In this sense, COP30 should focus not only on climate and environmental goals, but also on political and economic decisions that combine sustainability, diversification of production, and economic resilience – thus enabling a just transition to a new development strategy.
The International Context Is Fragmented
COP30 takes place in an international environment characterized by increased tensions between the major powers: China maintains its leadership in the production of low-emission technologies and batteries, thereby consolidating its influence on global energy and manufacturing supply chains. These advances are affecting prices, the availability of critical raw materials, and the pace of renewable energy adoption in the rest of the world.
The US, on the other hand, has tightened its trade policy with new tariff measures to protect its own industry and technology and has reduced its commitment to multilateral climate cooperation. The White House is prioritizing domestic stability and industrial employment – even if this undermines international cooperation and weakens global governance mechanisms.
The result is an international system in which power is increasingly exercised through energy and technology – and less through diplomacy.
Europe faces its own dilemma: it must ensure the competitiveness of its industrial base while pursuing ambitious decarbonization goals. The fragile balance between environmental regulation, industrial innovation, and energy security remains difficult to maintain, especially in the face of economic downturn and increasing domestic political tensions.
Other actors, such as Russia and the countries of the Middle East, continue to use energy as a geopolitical tool, exploiting crises and conflicts to strengthen their positions in international markets. The result is an international system in which power is increasingly exercised through energy and technology – and less through diplomacy.
Brazil’s Role at COP30: Diplomacy With Strategic Ambition
Brazil has a clear goal for COP30: to reposition its foreign policy in the area of climate cooperation, which it sees as an instrument of international leadership and influence. The Lula da Silva administration has recognized that the environmental agenda not only defines ecological commitments, but also expands economic and diplomatic scope for action in a world fragmented by trade and technology conflicts.
In 2025, Brazil pursued an ambitious climate diplomacy that combines regional leadership with global pragmatism. Since assuming the BRICS presidency, the country has pushed for the establishment of a joint fund to finance green infrastructure and energy transition projects – as an alternative to an international financial system that continues to be dominated by traditional institutions. At the same time, Brazil has resumed dialogue with the US to ease tensions after further tariffs were imposed on Brazilian industrial products, promoting trade rules that are consistent with climate and development goals.
The bold, albeit controversial, choice of Belém do Pará as the venue for COP30 goes beyond mere environmental symbolism: it expresses a political decision to shift the climate debate to the Amazon – a region that is central to the ecological and geopolitical stability of the planet. In this context, Brazil aims to show that a country with limited resources but with democratic legitimacy and institutional capacity can drive effective cooperation and verifiable results.
The consolidation of the Tropical Forest Fund Forever (TFFF) – together with an investment plan worth more than 1.3 trillion US dollars – is one example of how Brazil is managing to put transregional public goods on the agenda to show that collective action can be profitable, stable, and politically viable.
Nevertheless, Brazil faces significant internal challenges that could undermine its international credibility: The approval of oil exploration at the mouth of the Amazon, the passage of a law to relax environmental regulations, and difficulties in the consultation processes with local organizations and Indigenous communities during the implementation of the TFFF could become serious obstacles – and jeopardize the country's reputation as a global leader.
Latin America Ahead of COP30: Risks and Scope for Action
Latin America's starting position for COP30 is complex and contradictory. The region has outstanding ecological resources – including critical ecosystems, significant freshwater reserves, and strategic mineral and energy resources – and has considerable potential for large-scale expansion of renewable energies. However, these advantages are offset by structural weaknesses that limit the region's international influence. Low investment in innovation, fragile public finances, and continued dependence on primary commodity exports make it difficult to develop autonomous and sustainable transition strategies.
Latin America must coordinate common positions and establish cooperation mechanisms.
In this scenario, COP30 represents a significant opportunity, but it does not guarantee either major influence or substantial progress for Latin American countries. The region can only actively participate in shaping global standards and attract investment if it succeeds in coordinating common positions and establishing cooperation mechanisms that transcend national political cycles. However, ideological heterogeneity, external pressure, and the lack of a coordinated regional financing strategy continue to fragment Latin America's voice in international forums.
Brazil's leadership role is indispensable in this context – not as a guarantor of complete consensus, but as a possible point of convergence. Brazil's strategy aims to reconcile international ambitions with internal priorities for economic and social development – while promoting investment, institutional strengthening, and effective cooperation. Nevertheless, the scope for action remains limited: the lack of intra-regional consensus, weak cohesion between states, and global tensions in the areas of trade, energy, and technology constrain the region's influence.
The concept of a just transition must therefore be understood from a pragmatic perspective. It is not only a matter of balancing social and environmental impacts, but also of creating economic and institutional structures that are capable of redistributing profits and strengthening social and environmental resilience – so that new development strategies do not reproduce old inequalities.
Setting the Pace for Cooperation
COP30 in Belém will be neither a forum for mere declarations nor a purely symbolic event – it will be a test of governance and political realism. Latin America does not act as a unified bloc: its countries are developing at different speeds, pursuing different priorities, and have unequal institutional capacities. At the same time, powers such as China and the US set their own pace, while global strategic interests create tensions that make spontaneous or coherent cooperation difficult.
In this scenario, Brazil has the opportunity to break the existing “uncooperative equilibrium” – both within the region and in the international system. Its strength lies not in financial resources, but in its diplomatic ability to synchronize different interests without subordinating itself to a dominant power. From the presidency of the BRICS to the creation of the Tropical Forest Fund Forever (TFFF), Brazil is demonstrating its ambition to translate democratic legitimacy into a viable architecture for cooperation.
Brazil could demonstrate that coordinated action can lead to development, stability, and climate justice in a fragmented world.
The central challenge of COP30 will be to prove that democracy and institutional stability can also offer strategic advantages in international climate policy. If Brazil succeeds in setting the pace for cooperation, it could transform the region into a laboratory for multilateral governance – and thus demonstrate that coordinated action, not competition, can lead to development, stability, and climate justice in a fragmented world.
If Brazil manages to maintain this rhythm despite all its internal contradictions, Latin America could prove that it is not just a region with strategic resources, but an actor capable of orchestrating cooperation in a fragmented world – thereby demonstrating that climate justice and effective governance are possible even in structurally unequal and dynamic contexts.
This article first appeared in Spanish on the website of the Heinrich Böll Foundation in Santiago de Chile.
