The war with Iran is exacerbating the situation in the Middle East, with no prospect of security gains. Military escalation poses significant risks to stability in the region. Europe should therefore focus more strongly on de-escalation and compliance with international law.
The attacks by the US and Israel on Iran have sparked a regional conflagration. To date, the war has failed to improve security for people in the region. Instead, prospects are dwindling. The suffering of the civilian population is immense and growing daily – in Iran, in Lebanon, in Israel, and in the West Bank and Gaza.
None of the key players are working to counter the escalation. On the contrary, the US and Israel are continuing their attacks – partly due to a lack of viable exit strategies. And despite this immense pressure, the regime in Iran has shown no interest in a ceasefire. In this situation, it isn’t enough to issue abstract exhortations to all parties to comply with international law and to call on Iran alone to cease its attacks. According to most experts in the field, the attacks by the US and Israel also constitute a breach of international law. They must be brought to an end. Germany and Europe should step up their efforts to bring this about.
No Change From Outside
Given Iran’s massive human rights violations against its own population and the terror propagated by its rulers in Tehran, which extends far beyond the country’s borders, the desire for regime change is understandable. Yet this war is unlikely to bring either stability or security to the region. This is particularly the case for Israel. Recent decades show that the greatest risks arise when states are destabilised, resulting in a power vacuum. Israel’s experiences in Lebanon since the 1980s have been particularly instructive in this regard.
A sustainable transition towards the rule of law, political participation, and democracy in the multi-ethnic state of Iran can only come from within. The possibility that this war could still open a window of opportunity for change cannot be ruled out. However, the opposite is more probable: a regime that has not been defeated militarily but has been weakened is likely to further intensify internal repression once the war ends. Iranian civil society needs an opportunity to overcome the fragmentation of its many groups and rally behind a common vision for change. This is not possible during wartime.
Defending International Law
But it is also true that international law – or, more precisely, its enforcement mechanisms – has been too weak in its response to violent regimes such as that in Tehran. Military intervention to protect populations from gross and systematic violations of human rights requires a UN Security Council resolution, but these are frequently blocked by the veto of one of its five permanent members. Nevertheless, international law remains indispensable. It provides the standard for assessing state action and making political decisions. In doing so, it makes no distinction between powerful and less powerful states. It relies on negotiations and legal proceedings to remove threats, while considering the legitimate interests of all parties involved. In this way, it can create the trust needed to permanently contain and prevent violence.
Europe’s peace and prosperity depend largely on the rule of international law. This achievement must not be recklessly jeopardised. Europe must not allow itself to be guided solely by interests such as energy supply stability or continued US support for Ukraine. At the same time, it must press for a ceasefire, as well as identify clear violations of international law and support their investigation by the International Court of Justice. In this way, Europe can send a clear signal for a new order in the Middle East and convey a powerful message to civil society in the region: We see you, and we support you in your commitment to the rule of law, justice, and security.
Get Involved - Presidents' column
Get involved! There’s no other way to be real – thus the message of Heinrich Böll, and, to this day, his encouragement is inspiring us. With this column the Presidents of the Foundation involve themselves in current social and political debates. This column will appear each month, authored, in turn, by Jan Philipp Albrecht and Imme Scholz.