Friedrich Merz’s popularity is plummeting, and Germany’s ruling parties are fighting for survival. But now isn’t the time to focus on the fate of individuals and political groupings: Europe needs to be made fit for its new geopolitical reality.
May 9 is Europe Day. This year, it also marks the opening of a window of opportunity for change. With the election of Péter Magyar as Hungarian prime minister, Viktor Orbán’s era as the poster boy for European autocracy has come to an end. This clears the way for groundbreaking decisions at EU level that were previously blocked by the Hungarian veto, including on European foreign and security policy, support for Ukraine, and the EU budget.
But in eleven months’ time, with the French presidential election, this window of opportunity could close. Never before has Germany’s largest Western neighbour and the EU’s sole nuclear power been so close to a far-right presidency. As the countdown begins in earnest, real commitment is needed from the German government. Its current level of investment in the Franco-German partnership does not do justice to the urgency of the situation.
Just six months after France goes to the ballot box, elections are due to take place in Poland. Here, the right-wing populist Law and Justice (PiS) party, itself increasingly radicalised by the Polish electorate’s growing support for far-right and openly antisemitic forces, could join with the far right to oust Donald Tusk’s current centrist government. A governing coalition made up of these parties would pose an even greater challenge to Germany – and to Europe – than the last PiS-led government, in power from 2015 to 2023.
Merz did not attend the summit of the European Political Community
Beyond its symbolic value, this year’s Europe Day also marks the starting gun for a political sprint to strengthen Europe’s ability to act effectively and decisively. But, with the focus firmly fixed on their poor performance at home, has anyone in the German government even noticed?
Recent events suggest not. Most notably, instead of attending the eighth meeting of the high-level European Political Community (EPC) in Yerevan, Armenia, on 4 May, Friedrich Merz decided to spend time on “other commitments”, namely internal meetings of the CDU. Merz’s absence at the summit was made all the more conspicuous by the attendance of Canadian prime minister Mark Carney – the first non-European leader to do so. Carney recognises that, increasingly, the future of the international order will also be decided in Europe.
Germany’s misunderstanding of this historic moment could not have been more symbolic. Under massive geopolitical and economic pressure, Europe is attempting to find its feet in the new reality. Meanwhile, the German government remains paralysed by domestic affairs, scoring ever lower in approval ratings and repeatedly postponing even the smallest decisions. It is now clear – to everyone in the country – that urgent change is needed; clinging desperately to the status quo will only send us further down a dead end. To set the course for a stable and sustainable future and create the conditions for security and stability in the face of geopolitical and anti-democratic threats, we need Europe. Neither can be achieved at the national level.
Germany’s neighbours and partners in Europe are not only looking at the German government with expectation; they are actively urging it to take on a leadership role – within the EU, but also in cooperation with partner countries such as the UK, Canada, and Ukraine.
The problem here seems to be one of (mis)interpretation. Instead of providing impetus for deepening and further developing European cooperation and sovereignty and seeking compromises on defence, economic, and financial issues, the Merz government is primarily pursuing German strategies and interests in accordance with the motto “what is good for Germany is good for Europe”. But that is not how European leadership works. This approach sows mistrust and hinders decision-making.
However tense the current domestic political situation, the German government must not to lose itself in national self-absorption in the face of important decisions that need to be taken at the EU level. Many of Germany’s unresolved problems are European problems, after all. And just as with the creation of the single market, the Schengen Agreement, and the euro, it is not only in Germany’s fundamental interest to take joint European action; our country is, above all, the biggest beneficiary of these decisions.
Europe Needs to Restore Its Capacity to Act
The coming months offer several opportunities for powerful initiatives. On 17 June, Germany and Poland will celebrate the 35th anniversary of the bilateral Treaty on Good Neighbourliness, Friendship, and Cooperation. Among other actions, a new defence agreement is to be concluded for the occasion. The key question here is whether the Merz government can summon the courage to meet the Polish side halfway, allowing the latter to present enhanced cooperation with Germany as a genuine success at home.
The end of August also marks the 35th anniversary of the founding of the Weimar Triangle by France, Poland, and Germany. This, too, presents an excellent opportunity to strengthen a united Europe, using this format for political cooperation as a powerful driving force. All of these chances must be seized.
The countries of Europe are looking to Germany. They have little sympathy for a situation in which the fate of political parties or individuals is prioritised over the urgent need to restore Europe’s capacity to act.
Get Involved - Presidents' column
Get involved! There’s no other way to be real – thus the message of Heinrich Böll, and, to this day, his encouragement is inspiring us. With this column the Presidents of the Foundation involve themselves in current social and political debates. This column will appear each month, authored, in turn, by Jan Philipp Albrecht and Imme Scholz.