The G20 Summit and COP30 converged at a time of exceptional strain on the multilateral system. As geopolitical divides widened, coalitions of the willing nonetheless succeeded in keeping debt sustainability and climate- and development-related ambitions on the international agenda.
The 2025 G20 Leaders’ Summit in Johannesburg and COP30 in Belém unfolded at a moment when the multilateral system is under unusual strain. Geopolitical divisions are widening, major powers remain wary of deeper reforms, and petrostates continue to defend the fossil-fuel status quo. Yet across both summits, coalitions of the willing emerged with renewed determination, keeping debt sustainability, climate ambition, and inclusive development firmly on the international agenda.
This dual reality – political fragmentation on one hand, forward-leaning alliances on the other – defined the outcomes in Johannesburg and Belém. And while neither summit delivered the structural breakthroughs many had hoped for, both produced meaningful steps that can inform the work ahead.
G20 Leaders’ Summit: Debt Returns to Centre Stage
The G20 Presidency hosted by South Africa offered one of the clearest openings in years for advancing debt-related reforms.
A highlight was the long-awaited release of the South Africa G20 Africa Expert Panel Report. The expert panel presented a comprehensive set of recommendations to address the sovereign debt crisis, including:
- A new G20 debt refinancing initiative
- Establishment of a Borrowers’ Club to strengthen African countries’ negotiating power
- A transparent, timely, and coordinated debt-resolution mechanism
- Enhanced debt transparency and strengthened debt sustainability assessments
The report is notable not only for its breadth but for its authorship: African policymakers and experts are setting out their own agenda, raising the question of whether this moment could mark the beginning of a more borrower-led approach to sovereign debt reform.
South Africa’s Steady Leadership Amid Resistance
Despite resistance from several non-participating G20 members, South Africa managed to deliver a G20 leaders communiqué and set their own priorities. While it did not introduce new mechanisms on debt, it:
- Reaffirmed commitment to the G20 Ministerial Declaration on Debt Sustainability
- Highlighted high capital costs faced by vulnerable economies
- Included substantive language on inequality, just energy transitions, and climate finance, which can no longer be taken for granted in today’s geopolitical environment
As emphasized in an op-ed by Nana Akufo-Addo and Ulrich Volz, South Africa deserves credit for placing debt sustainability and the cost of capital at the centre of G20 deliberations. They call for Europe to play a more proactive role in advancing debt relief and forging inclusive partnerships with Africa.
While ambitious structural reform remains elusive, the Johannesburg Summit succeeded in reopening space for debt discussions – space that borrower coalitions, African institutions, and reform-minded governments can now build on. Unfortunately, next year’s G20 presidency, the USA under Donald Trump, is unlikely to provide leadership on this issue.
COP30 in Belém: High Aspirations, Hard Realities
COP30 began with an unexpected surge of ambition: more than 90 countries endorsed a roadmap for phasing out fossil fuels. As negotiations progressed, however, the familiar geopolitical lines hardened.
A determined group of countries – Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Russia, India – blocked consensus on any reference to fossil fuel phaseout. In the end, the ambitious roadmaps proposed by progressive countries and vulnerable states went unmentioned in the final COP outcome called Mutirão and will only be taken forward on a voluntary basis outside the UNFCCC process. Leadership was particularly provided by the government of Colombia, which together with the Netherlands invited to a conference on a just and orderly fossil fuel phase out in Santa Marta, Colombia, next March.
In the end, the ambitious roadmaps proposed by progressive countries and vulnerable states went unmentioned in the final COP outcome called Mutirão and will only be taken forward on a voluntary basis outside the UNFCCC process.
Yet negotiators still agreed to a package of decisions that includes among others a commitment to triple adaptation finance by 2035, the establishment of a Just Transition Mechanism, the recognition of Indigenous rights and a new work programme on climate finance.
While this is far from what is needed, it is an important signal that agreement on climate action is still feasible at the international level. A key negotiator from Antigua and Barbuda summed the sentiment up well, “I couldn’t say we’re happy, but we are giving thanks that in this geopolitical climate that we have not regressed.”
Finance: Progress, But Insufficient to Match Need
Climate finance was again a decisive issue. COP30 reaffirmed last year’s new targets – $300bn annually and a broader $1.3tn ambition by 2035 – but lacked clarity on how these sums will be mobilised.
A central piece of this discussion – the Baku–Belém Roadmap – was designed to bridge the gap between existing climate finance commitments and the trillions needed annually to support mitigation, adaptation, and resilience. For many developing countries, this link between debt burdens and climate action is not abstract: elevated debt service is directly constraining their ability to invest in resilience, energy transitions, and growth-enhancing infrastructure. By situating climate finance needs within this macro-fiscal reality, the Roadmap offered a rare opening within UNFCCC to discuss how debt relief, improved liquidity, and lower borrowing costs could complement climate finance efforts.
COP30 reaffirmed last year’s new targets, but lacked clarity on how these sums will be mobilised.
Yet the process surrounding the Roadmap was fraught. Published only a week before COP30, it faced immediate concerns about transparency and its formulation outside the formal negotiating tracks. Some countries objected to the notion that the UNFCCC should propose financial reforms beyond its traditional mandate. As a result, the Roadmap was only “noted” in the final outcome and received minimal discussion in Belém.
Despite this, its underlying premise – that climate ambition cannot be realised without addressing the structural debt and financing challenges facing developing economies – remains critical. Brazil has signalled its intention to continue consultations and convene the parallel “Circle of Finance Ministers,” leaving open the possibility of further development in 2026.
The Rise of Plurilateralism
Several of the most ambitious ideas – fossil fuel phaseout, deforestation plans, and broader financial reforms – will now advance outside the UNFCCC through coalitions of willing countries. This trend is not ideal, but it reflects a pragmatic response to gridlocked multilateral negotiations.
UNFCCC Executive Secretary Simon Stiell captured the broader trajectory: the global transition to low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development “is irreversible.” Despite political resistance, markets, institutions, and many governments are moving in that direction. While the annual COP will continue to be an important platform for advancing the climate agenda, it is increasingly actors at subnational, regional and local levels who are driving forward implementation.
Beyond Johannesburg and Belém, the EU-CELAC Summit and the EU-AU Summit added another important signal. Building on the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development (FfD4), leaders reaffirmed their commitment to a more inclusive, representative, and effective international debt architecture and the need for further reforms to debt restructuring and debt sustainability.
Looking Ahead: Preserving Momentum in an Era of Fragmentation
Neither the G20 nor COP30 delivered sweeping reforms. But both demonstrated that even in a fractious geopolitical environment, coalitions of the willing are strengthening, borrower voices are becoming more coordinated, and debt sustainability has re-emerged as a central theme in global policy debates. The challenge now is to convert this momentum into action: to move from recognition to delivery, and from fragmented dialogue to robust mechanisms that support countries in investing in their people, their climate goals, and their long-term development.
Neither the G20 nor COP30 delivered sweeping reforms. But both demonstrated that even in a fractious geopolitical environment, coalitions of the willing are strengthening, borrower voices are becoming more coordinated.
As the world heads toward COP31 and another G20 and G7 cycle, the task is clear – build on what has been achieved, expand the circle of ambition, and ensure that debt relief and climate action advance together rather than remain siloed. In this context, the United Nations and the follow-up processes from the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development (FfD4) – including the Borrower Platform and the emerging Seville Forum – will play an increasingly important role. These more inclusive spaces offer critical opportunities to anchor reform efforts, align global financing with development and climate priorities, and sustain the political momentum generated in Johannesburg and Belém.
This article was first published on drgr.org.
