The US is largely falling away as a partner, while China is binding the Global South ever closer. To help shape tomorrow’s world order, Europe needs new, credible platforms for climate, development, and fair trade rules – together with the emerging middle powers.
Since taking office, Donald Trump has openly questioned the US-dominated world order. Human rights, international law, and the United Nations have lost all meaning for him. He employs punitive tariffs to force political concessions. And now, a shift that has long been on the cards is becoming increasingly concrete: the US wants to significantly reduce its involvement in NATO by 2027.
In addition, in its new national security strategy, Washington predicts the decline of Europe due to migration and threatens its – former – European partners with interference in their internal affairs by strengthening nationalist forces close to the MAGA movement. Trump’s political course and his proximity to the resurgent far right are putting European democratic forces under pressure both internally and externally, exacerbating deep uncertainties within the continent and serving to further weaken its position vis-à-vis Washington.
The Economic Power of Developing and Emerging Countries Is Growing
Added to this is political and economic pressure from China. According to IMF calculations, the country surpassed the US to become the world’s largest economy in terms of purchasing power in 2016. China is leading the way in the development of electric cars, batteries, and solar energy and dominates the global trade in rare earths. It is also making enormous progress in artificial intelligence and has caught up with the US and Europe on research and development and patent applications.
To avoid being crushed between these two superpowers, it is clear that Europe needs new allies. Here, Germany is reliant on Europe to hold its own under these new circumstances. These partners can be found in the so-called Global South – within the group of middle powers that, like Europe itself, do not have sufficient economic, political, or military power to shape their foreign relations freely in line with their own interests.
These new partnerships are essential, as stronger cooperation with Canada, Japan, South Korea, the United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand alone will not be enough. In 2008, the purchasing power of developing and emerging states exceeded that of the old industrialised countries and has been growing steadily ever since. As such, countries such as Indonesia, India, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam offer clear opportunities for the EU.
China Sees the Global South as an Important Partner – Germany and the EU Fail to Demonstrate This
In recent years, Beijing has deliberately expanded its relations with countries in the Global South – not least by establishing a dense network of global economic cooperation organisations, including corresponding development banks. In doing so, Beijing has deepened its economic presence in the Global South and at the same time consolidated its political power internationally. It is clear that China sees these countries as important political and economic partners. By contrast, Germany and the EU have to date failed to demonstrate this in their relations with these countries.
What goals and interests should Europe pursue with these new partners? In this context, European and German interests are not only economic; they also touch on the foundations of international cooperation. We need an international order based on human rights and international law, with multilateral organisations to prevent, resolve, or at least contain crises and conflicts and to tackle the global challenges facing humanity such as climate protection and biodiversity loss.
Given the altered balance of power, it isn’t enough to defend multilateral cooperation and its institutions; they must also be strengthened and restructured to make them more effective and hold new and emerging powers to account. To this end, Europe must become a reliable partner that is willing to reform. This also applies to world trade rules. In the short term, the multilateral trading system must be maintained. But in the medium term, reforms must be made to establish fair rules that give unequal partners equal opportunities for development and strengthen their commitment to social and environmental standards. Such cooperation will make it easier to protect and strengthen our democracies. Germany and Europe must clearly demonstrate that they understand the new geopolitical situation and, as a result, are seeking new partners. Unfortunately, the COP 30 climate talks in Belém represented a missed opportunity to prove this.
Get Involved - Presidents' column
Get involved! There’s no other way to be real – thus the message of Heinrich Böll, and, to this day, his encouragement is inspiring us. With this column the Presidents of the Foundation involve themselves in current social and political debates. This column will appear each month, authored, in turn, by Jan Philipp Albrecht and Imme Scholz.