Is Europe ready for the era of hybrid warfare? To defend against hybrid attacks, we must urgently build civil preparedness and societal resilience. When updating security assets, we must not only invest in hardware and software but also in 'wetware'.
When Defend Democracy started, 'hybrid threats' was still a niche concept. Today, you only need to open a newspaper to see them front and centre. From cyberattacks to economic coercion, from psychological warfare to the sabotage of critical infrastructure, it is hard to ignore how much our security situation has shifted, even in just the past few months.
Hybrid Threats
Hybrid threats are harmful activities that are planned and carried out with malign intent. They aim to undermine a state or an institution through a variety of means, often combined. Such means include information manipulation, cyberattacks, strategic corruption, economic coercion, covert political maneuvering, coercive diplomacy, and threats of military force. Hybrid threats describe a wide array of harmful activities with different goals, ranging from relatively light interference all the way to hybrid warfare.
By using hybrid threat activities, malign actors seek to deepen divisions in society.
Hybrid threats aim to restrict targeted states' political room for maneuver, including by undermining their citizens’ sense of security. They are designed to create fear or anxiety, and sow distrust towards authorities and groups like migrants, minorities, or activists. They target and exploit vulnerabilities inherent in democracies and in the fabric of democratic societies, such as civil liberties and political rights. By using hybrid threat activities, malign actors seek to deepen divisions in society, undermining social cohesion and trust among citizens and towards their democratic institutions.
Coup Against Democracy
Since at least 2014 we have been witnessing a coup against democracy unfolding across Europe and beyond – driven by a combination of hybrid warfare, the rise of the far-right, and a tech coup. Therefore, Defend Democracy’s mission is to strengthen and defend democracy against foreign, domestic and technological threats. These three threats are not separate from one another; they are linked and are reinforcing each other.
Many leaders, politicians and policy-makers still struggle to accept the reality unfolding before their eyes. They cling to the belief that fact-checking and critical thinking will protect our citizens from being emotionally targeted by algorithms and propaganda; that humans can win from AI polluting our whole information ecosystem; that it is possible to have good-faith talks with Big Tech CEOs and lobbyists; that the EU's digital laws are sufficient; and that we have time to find out if they even work – before our privacy has become non-existent due to digital surveillance, before our social cohesion is lethally wounded by polarization, and before our democracies are undermined not only from the outside but also from within.
Security Update
Given that these attacks are not targeting our soldiers but our citizens, how can we defend ourselves? How do we defend our democracy when our adversaries' weapons are not only tanks and missiles but addictive digital platforms? How do we strengthen and protect our societies when those adversaries not only deploy guns and drones but also sow division and distrust among our digitally addicted citizens, turning us against one another?
How do we ensure that our democratic processes and government services continue to function when – from cyberattacks to economic coercion, from psychological warfare to strategic corruption and the sabotage of critical infrastructure – anything can and will be used against us? When everything is weaponized to subvert our democracies, including from the inside? In the era of hybrid warfare, how do we update our security and defense?
Digital Detox
First, after a decade of institutional whack-a-mole that focused on reactive fact-checking and content moderation, we should know these are not effective. Instead of chasing symptoms, we should address causes. Stronger and swifter enforcement of the EU's Data Privacy Law and Digital Services Act may be a good start. But we also need to tackle the addictive design and polarizing algorithms of social media. Either the upcoming Digital Fairness Act or the European Democracy Shield should impose digital platforms to have their recommender algorithms switched off as the default setting. We must make it harder to weaponize our digital infrastructure against us.
We must make it harder to weaponize our digital infrastructure against us.
At the same time, we should expand the scope of critical infrastructure to include digital platforms: social media, search engines, AI assistants, chat bots, companion apps. And we must urgently build a European digital public infrastructure. This means a European, values-based technological ecosystem that prioritizes the public interest and upholds democratic values, while advancing the twin digital and green transitions. Platforms that function without targeted advertising are, by design, less addictive and more privacy-friendly. Federated, open source digital platforms will also make us less dependent on tech oligarchs who may be co-opted by our adversaries.
Comprehensive Security
Second, we need a comprehensive defense policy against hybrid threats. The European Democracy Shield should not be like an umbrella: protecting against the rain from above but not against the flooding from below. A shield that protects us from outside adversaries while at the same time strengthening our internal defenses; a democratic immune system against the foreign and domestic illiberal viruses attacking our democracies.
Comprehensive security demands that our governments and democratic institutions continue to function, especially in times of crisis. This means we must not only re-commit to the rule of law and our values, but strengthen the separation of powers, nurture healthy systems of checks and balances, and foster media that are independent from governments and from media moguls.
Defending democracy – be it from foreign, domestic or technological threats – always starts at home, by strengthening our democratic institutions and processes. We must be not only resilient but also vigilant and pro-actively prepared. This means boosting our democratic immune system: building deterrence by denial of hybrid attacks.
Hardware, Software, Wetware
As the European Union is waking up to the fact that its holiday from history is over, defense spending is on the rise. But are we investing in the right things? Most budget is for hardware: tanks, missiles, guns, drones. It is considered modern to invest in software: AI to outsmart our adversaries on the battlefield, and cybersecurity to fend off cyberattacks. But where are our investments in wetware: in psychological defense and, more proactively and broadly, in our societies' mindset? Why are we mostly preparing for conventional warfare but hardly for hybrid warfare – which is already happening right now?
If there is one thing that experts agree on, it is that to deal with hybrid threats we need a whole-of-society approach. This requires enhanced societal resilience, and more effective cooperation between the civilian and military sectors and across governments. But building societal preparedness and resilience doesn't come for free. EU countries have underinvested not only in conventional defense, but also in our social fabric, our social contract, in upholding our democratic values. This negatively impacts our population's mindset.
To invest in “wetware”, we must invest in democratic institutions, civil preparedness and societal resilience. For this we must earmark budget in the EU's multi-annual budget and as part of NATO's defense spending. We can align the EU's budget with NATO's agreed 1.5% of GDP for security-related spending: by investing in increasing EU's tech sovereignty and societal resilience to hybrid warfare.
Europe Must Act Now
Democracy won’t defend itself. With Trump, Putin and the “techbros” teaming up, it is time we stand up to defend democracy while we still can. Our window of opportunity is closing fast. Defense ministers and intelligence services are warning of rising sabotage across Europe and assess that Russia may escalate its imperial war to one or more NATO countries within a few years. Meanwhile, the Trump regime wants regime change in the European Union, falsely framing our digital laws as “censorship” and “digital fascism”.
The time to invest in democracy is now.
The time to invest in democracy is now. If there is one lesson that EU leaders should learn from Ukraine, it is that democracy and security serve one another. If we support democracy abroad and defend it at home, we strengthen our collective security. By investing in more robust democratic institutions, civil preparedness and societal resilience, we strengthen the defenses that can deter and repel Russia’s hybrid warfare, which, as we have seen in Ukraine, can develop over time into conventional warfare.
The next few months will be decisive for our democracy and security: Will the European Union have the courage to urgently take and enforce adequate structural measures to defend democracy against the weaponization of digital platforms by foreign and domestic adversaries of democracy? If the future of our democracies depends on comprehensive security including tech sovereignty, on our preparedness and resilience, we must start work today.
